课程编码
mrkfct
课程时长
14 小时 通常来说是2天，包括中间休息。
要求
Good Excel or other Spreadsheet knowledge
Solid Maths and Statistics knowledge
课程概览
听众
本课程是为分析师创建的，预测人员希望引入或改进预测，这些预测可能与销售预测，经济预测，技术预测，供应链管理以及需求或供应预测有关。
描述
本课程通过一系列方法，框架和算法指导代表，这些方法，框架和算法在选择如何根据历史数据预测未来时非常有用。
它使用标准工具，如Microsoft Excel或一些开源程序（特别是R项目）。
本课程涵盖的原则可以通过任何软件实施（例如SAS，SPSS，Statistica，MINITAB ......）
Machine Translated
课程大纲
Problems facing forecasters
- Customer demand planning
- Investor uncertainty
- Economic planning
- Seasonal changes in demand/utilization
- Roles of risk and uncertainty
Time series methods
- Moving average
- Exponential smoothing
- Extrapolation
- Linear prediction
- Trend estimation
- Growth curve
Econometric methods (casual methods)
- Regression analysis using linear regression or non-linear regression
- Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
- Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
- Econometrics
Judgemental methods
- Surveys
- Delphi method
- Scenario building
- Technology forecasting
- Forecast by analogy
Simulation and other methods
- Simulation
- Prediction market
- Probabilistic forecasting and Ensemble forecasting
- Reference class forecasting
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