Market Forecasting培训

课程编码

mrkfct

课程时长

14 小时 通常来说是2天,包括中间休息。

要求

Good Excel or other Spreadsheet knowledge

Solid Maths and Statistics knowledge

课程概览

听众

本课程是为分析师创建的,预测人员希望引入或改进预测,这些预测可能与销售预测,经济预测,技术预测,供应链管理以及需求或供应预测有关。

描述

本课程通过一系列方法,框架和算法指导代表,这些方法,框架和算法在选择如何根据历史数据预测未来时非常有用。

它使用标准工具,如Microsoft Excel或一些开源程序(特别是R项目)。

本课程涵盖的原则可以通过任何软件实施(例如SAS,SPSS,Statistica,MINITAB ......)

Machine Translated

课程大纲

Problems facing forecasters

  • Customer demand planning
  • Investor uncertainty
  • Economic planning
  • Seasonal changes in demand/utilization
  • Roles of risk and uncertainty

Time series methods

  • Moving average
  • Exponential smoothing
  • Extrapolation
  • Linear prediction
  • Trend estimation
  • Growth curve

Econometric methods (casual methods)

  • Regression analysis using linear regression or non-linear regression
  • Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
  • Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
  • Econometrics

Judgemental methods

  • Surveys
  • Delphi method
  • Scenario building
  • Technology forecasting
  • Forecast by analogy

Simulation and other methods

  • Simulation
  • Prediction market
  • Probabilistic forecasting and Ensemble forecasting
  • Reference class forecasting

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